http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books?hl=en
rec.arts.books@googlegroups.com
Today's topics:
* Bookstores Around the World (rec.arts.books) (FAQ) (IMPORTANT UPDATE) - 7
messages, 5 authors
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books/t/92153a6882249799?hl=en
* Superiority Complex - Authors' Tone - 3 messages, 3 authors
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books/t/2fcef07e1cab3641?hl=en
* Cheaper Kindle - 5 messages, 4 authors
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books/t/83369cb7977feb61?hl=en
* Mandelbrot on efficient markets - 1 messages, 1 author
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books/t/496fa77e4c853268?hl=en
* The book that contains all books - 1 messages, 1 author
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books/t/1950ed5393c908a7?hl=en
==============================================================================
TOPIC: Bookstores Around the World (rec.arts.books) (FAQ) (IMPORTANT UPDATE)
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books/t/92153a6882249799?hl=en
==============================================================================
== 1 of 7 ==
Date: Tues, Oct 20 2009 11:41 pm
From: "Taemon"
Evelyn Leeper wrote:
> It has nothing to do with any of the groups, or with my original
> subkect line, and I wish people would change the Subject so I didn't
> have to keep reading this in case *someone* decided to post an update
> about actual bookstores.
I simply don't read any message that contains only quotes on the first page.
Saves a lot of annoyance.
T.
== 2 of 7 ==
Date: Wed, Oct 21 2009 7:06 am
From: Louann Miller
"Taemon" <Taemon@zonnet.nl> wrote in
news:hbmafc$374$1@news.eternal-september.org:
> I simply don't read any message that contains only quotes on the first
> page. Saves a lot of annoyance.
>
> T.
There's a lot to be said for that practice.
== 3 of 7 ==
Date: Wed, Oct 21 2009 1:28 pm
From: Beowulf Bolt
Stanley Moore wrote:
>
> There was some recent case in Texas where an illegal alien (or maybe
> legal resident) was not informed that he could apply to his consulate
> for help. I do not recall the details but a treaty issue entered into
> it. I think it was a death penalty case. Take care
If you consider a decade ago 'recent' you probably are referring to
Joseph Stanley Faulder. Unfortunately for him, the Canadian appeals for
his sentence to be commuted to life imprisonment because of the alien's
right issue went to Dubya, and were received with Dubya's usual response
(ie "no").
See
http://www.nytimes.com/1998/12/08/us/aliens-rights-are-issue-in-texas-death-row-case.html
for a brief discussion of his case.
Biff
--
-------------------------------------------------------------------
"All around me darkness gathers, fading is the sun that shone,
we must speak of other matters, you can be me when I'm gone..."
- SANDMAN #67, Neil Gaiman
-------------------------------------------------------------------
== 4 of 7 ==
Date: Wed, Oct 21 2009 3:51 pm
From: "Stanley Moore"
"Beowulf Bolt" <abd.al-hazred@shaw.ca> wrote in message
news:4ADF6EE5.39AE@shaw.ca...
> Stanley Moore wrote:
>>
>> There was some recent case in Texas where an illegal alien (or maybe
>> legal resident) was not informed that he could apply to his consulate
>> for help. I do not recall the details but a treaty issue entered into
>> it. I think it was a death penalty case. Take care
>
> If you consider a decade ago 'recent' you probably are referring to
> Joseph Stanley Faulder. Unfortunately for him, the Canadian appeals for
> his sentence to be commuted to life imprisonment because of the alien's
> right issue went to Dubya, and were received with Dubya's usual response
> (ie "no").
>
> See
> http://www.nytimes.com/1998/12/08/us/aliens-rights-are-issue-in-texas-death-row-case.html
> for a brief discussion of his case.
>
> Biff
>
At my age a decade see,s recent history <G>. However a decade ago "Dubya" as
you call him was governor of Texas not President. Clinton was President and
could have commuted the sentence had he wished to. In any case based on the
facts of the case the death penalty was fully justified. But I was referring
to something more recent that involved as I recall a Mexican national rather
than a Canadian. Take care
--
Stanley L. Moore
"The belief in a supernatural
source of evil is not necessary;
men alone are quite capable
of every wickedness."
Joseph Conrad
== 5 of 7 ==
Date: Wed, Oct 21 2009 6:49 pm
From: "Francis A. Miniter"
Stanley Moore wrote:
> "Beowulf Bolt" <abd.al-hazred@shaw.ca> wrote in message
> news:4ADF6EE5.39AE@shaw.ca...
>> Stanley Moore wrote:
>>> There was some recent case in Texas where an illegal alien (or maybe
>>> legal resident) was not informed that he could apply to his consulate
>>> for help. I do not recall the details but a treaty issue entered into
>>> it. I think it was a death penalty case. Take care
>> If you consider a decade ago 'recent' you probably are referring to
>> Joseph Stanley Faulder. Unfortunately for him, the Canadian appeals for
>> his sentence to be commuted to life imprisonment because of the alien's
>> right issue went to Dubya, and were received with Dubya's usual response
>> (ie "no").
>>
>> See
>> http://www.nytimes.com/1998/12/08/us/aliens-rights-are-issue-in-texas-death-row-case.html
>> for a brief discussion of his case.
>>
>> Biff
>>
>
> At my age a decade see,s recent history <G>. However a decade ago "Dubya" as
> you call him was governor of Texas not President. Clinton was President and
> could have commuted the sentence had he wished to. In any case based on the
> facts of the case the death penalty was fully justified. But I was referring
> to something more recent that involved as I recall a Mexican national rather
> than a Canadian. Take care
Hi Stanley,
I think Biff did mean Bush and in his capacity as Governor.
In a state death penalty case, the power of commuting the
sentence lies with the Governor. The President of the
United States has no power there. Notice that in the
Medellin case, Bush was trying to intervene on the side of
the condemned man, an act for which I give him credit
(though his reasons had far more to do with relations with
Mexico than recognition of justice), and he failed to
accomplish anything at the Supreme Court.
--
Francis A. Miniter
Oscuramente
libros, laminas, llaves
siguen mi suerte.
Jorge Luis Borges, La Cifra Haiku, 6
== 6 of 7 ==
Date: Wed, Oct 21 2009 7:40 pm
From: "Stanley Moore"
"Francis A. Miniter" <faminiter@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:hbodmm$i6e$1@news.eternal-september.org...
> Stanley Moore wrote:
>> "Beowulf Bolt" <abd.al-hazred@shaw.ca> wrote in message
>> news:4ADF6EE5.39AE@shaw.ca...
>>> Stanley Moore wrote:
>>>> There was some recent case in Texas where an illegal alien (or maybe
>>>> legal resident) was not informed that he could apply to his consulate
>>>> for help. I do not recall the details but a treaty issue entered into
>>>> it. I think it was a death penalty case. Take care
>>> If you consider a decade ago 'recent' you probably are referring to
>>> Joseph Stanley Faulder. Unfortunately for him, the Canadian appeals for
>>> his sentence to be commuted to life imprisonment because of the alien's
>>> right issue went to Dubya, and were received with Dubya's usual response
>>> (ie "no").
>>>
>>> See
>>> http://www.nytimes.com/1998/12/08/us/aliens-rights-are-issue-in-texas-death-row-case.html
>>> for a brief discussion of his case.
>>>
>>> Biff
>>>
>>
>> At my age a decade see,s recent history <G>. However a decade ago "Dubya"
>> as you call him was governor of Texas not President. Clinton was
>> President and could have commuted the sentence had he wished to. In any
>> case based on the facts of the case the death penalty was fully
>> justified. But I was referring to something more recent that involved as
>> I recall a Mexican national rather than a Canadian. Take care
>
>
> Hi Stanley,
>
> I think Biff did mean Bush and in his capacity as Governor. In a state
> death penalty case, the power of commuting the sentence lies with the
> Governor. The President of the United States has no power there. Notice
> that in the Medellin case, Bush was trying to intervene on the side of the
> condemned man, an act for which I give him credit (though his reasons had
> far more to do with relations with Mexico than recognition of justice),
> and he failed to accomplish anything at the Supreme Court.
>
> --
> Francis A. Miniter
I thought the power of Presidential pardon was unlimited and the President
COULD override the governor though it would probably not be wise to do so.
Take care
--
Stanley L. Moore
"The belief in a supernatural
source of evil is not necessary;
men alone are quite capable
of every wickedness."
Joseph Conrad
== 7 of 7 ==
Date: Wed, Oct 21 2009 7:50 pm
From: "Francis A. Miniter"
Stanley Moore wrote:
> "Francis A. Miniter" <faminiter@comcast.net> wrote in message
> news:hbodmm$i6e$1@news.eternal-september.org...
>> Stanley Moore wrote:
>>> "Beowulf Bolt" <abd.al-hazred@shaw.ca> wrote in message
>>> news:4ADF6EE5.39AE@shaw.ca...
>>>> Stanley Moore wrote:
>>>>> There was some recent case in Texas where an illegal alien (or maybe
>>>>> legal resident) was not informed that he could apply to his consulate
>>>>> for help. I do not recall the details but a treaty issue entered into
>>>>> it. I think it was a death penalty case. Take care
>>>> If you consider a decade ago 'recent' you probably are referring to
>>>> Joseph Stanley Faulder. Unfortunately for him, the Canadian appeals for
>>>> his sentence to be commuted to life imprisonment because of the alien's
>>>> right issue went to Dubya, and were received with Dubya's usual response
>>>> (ie "no").
>>>>
>>>> See
>>>> http://www.nytimes.com/1998/12/08/us/aliens-rights-are-issue-in-texas-death-row-case.html
>>>> for a brief discussion of his case.
>>>>
>>>> Biff
>>>>
>>> At my age a decade see,s recent history <G>. However a decade ago "Dubya"
>>> as you call him was governor of Texas not President. Clinton was
>>> President and could have commuted the sentence had he wished to. In any
>>> case based on the facts of the case the death penalty was fully
>>> justified. But I was referring to something more recent that involved as
>>> I recall a Mexican national rather than a Canadian. Take care
>>
>> Hi Stanley,
>>
>> I think Biff did mean Bush and in his capacity as Governor. In a state
>> death penalty case, the power of commuting the sentence lies with the
>> Governor. The President of the United States has no power there. Notice
>> that in the Medellin case, Bush was trying to intervene on the side of the
>> condemned man, an act for which I give him credit (though his reasons had
>> far more to do with relations with Mexico than recognition of justice),
>> and he failed to accomplish anything at the Supreme Court.
>>
>> --
>> Francis A. Miniter
>
> I thought the power of Presidential pardon was unlimited and the President
> COULD override the governor though it would probably not be wise to do so.
> Take care
No. The Pardon Power goes only to federal crimes. Article
II, Section 2 of the United States Constitution states that
the President "shall have power to grant reprieves and
pardons for offenses against the United States, except in
cases of impeachment." It is the "against the United
States" that is the limitation. The pardon power, as you
noted, includes the power to commute sentences as well.
--
Francis A. Miniter
Oscuramente
libros, laminas, llaves
siguen mi suerte.
Jorge Luis Borges, La Cifra Haiku, 6
==============================================================================
TOPIC: Superiority Complex - Authors' Tone
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books/t/2fcef07e1cab3641?hl=en
==============================================================================
== 1 of 3 ==
Date: Wed, Oct 21 2009 6:23 am
From: Transition Zone
Which conservative-themed book DOES'NT have a "superior" tone by its
Author?
(eventually SOMEBODY'S gotta ask this)
== 2 of 3 ==
Date: Wed, Oct 21 2009 6:39 am
From: Bert Hyman
In news:6c9a8672-b809-447c-a993-ccc3854d208c@m1g2000vbi.googlegroups.com
Transition Zone <mogulah@hotmail.com> wrote:
> Which conservative-themed book DOES'NT have a "superior" tone by its
> Author?
Superior tone? Please elaborate.
> (eventually SOMEBODY'S gotta ask this)
Why?
--
Bert Hyman St. Paul, MN bert@iphouse.com
== 3 of 3 ==
Date: Wed, Oct 21 2009 12:04 pm
From: Patriot Games
On Wed, 21 Oct 2009 06:23:47 -0700 (PDT), Transition Zone
<mogulah@hotmail.com> wrote:
>Which conservative-themed book DOES'NT have a "superior" tone by its
>Author?
>(eventually SOMEBODY'S gotta ask this)
Liars are EXPOSED:
On Fri, 13 Mar 2009 07:48:58 -0700 (PDT), Transition Zone
<mogulah@hotmail.com> wrote:
>> >> >And Bam & Bush can both be sued by Afghan property owners in UN
>> >> >proceedings. Iraqi property owners probably can, too.
>> >> There are no such "UN proceedings." they don't exist.
>> >> No, there's no such thing.
>> >Says who ??
>> Feel free to CITE ANY so-called "UN proceedings" where individual
>> citizens
>Which one? How do they define "sue"? Even so, "individual" (singular)
>or "citizens" (plural)?
You said: "And Bam & Bush can both be sued by Afghan property owners
in UN proceedings."
You were ALLOWED 24 hours to PROVE your CLAIM or OWN the LIE.
>> I'm waiting....
>' Might as well keep waiting, too.
>> <crickets...>-
>(Enjoy the night)
Your 24 hours are GONE. You FAILED to PROVE your CLAIM, You OWN the
LIE.
YOU ARE A PROVEN LIAR.
===================================
On Sat, 21 Mar 2009 12:06:17 -0700 (PDT), Transition Zone
<mogulah@hotmail.com> wrote:
>On Mar 19, 3:17 pm, Patriot Games <Patr...@America.Com> wrote:
>> STILL WAITING for your CITE of those UN Proceedings..........
>No need, because...
Thanks for ADMITTING YOU ARE A LIAR.
Case closed.
Game over.
==============================================================================
TOPIC: Cheaper Kindle
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books/t/83369cb7977feb61?hl=en
==============================================================================
== 1 of 5 ==
Date: Wed, Oct 21 2009 9:08 am
From: Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy
Mike Ash <mike@mikeash.com> wrote in
news:mike-5D57CD.00221221102009@news.eternal-september.org:
> In article <Xns9CAA94105697taustingmail@69.16.186.50>,
> Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy <taustinca@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Mike Ash <mike@mikeash.com> wrote in
>> news:mike-846614.16392720102009@news.eternal-september.org:
>>
>> > In article <Xns9CAA6E3DCA77Btaustingmail@69.16.186.50>,
>> > Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy <taustinca@gmail.com> wrote:
>> >
>> >> Digital watches are not known for emitting RF. Pretty much
>> >> anything with a screen, especially if it also has a computer
>> >> CPU, can. It isn't that they think it does, so much as it
>> >> hasn't been tested and proven not to. And even if it were,
>> >> there's millions of other devices out there that haven't,
>> >> and the flight crew doesn't have time to look for compliance
>> >> stickers on each and every device. They would rather annoy
>> >> you than allow even the remotest avoidable chance (even an
>> >> unrealistic one) of interfering with the avionics.
>> >
>> > And of course nobody is ever troubled by the massive
>> > contradiction of the idea that a turned-on cell phone could
>> > somehow take down the aircraft, but enforcement of it is
>> > purely voluntary.
>> >
>> You didn't even read what I wrote, did you?
>
> Of course I did.
Then why didn't you respond to it?
>
>> (There have been tests that demonstrated that certain models of
>> phone could, possibly even in the real world, affect certain
>> types of avionics gear, though in both cases the type would be
>> "very, very old.")
>
> And yet, nobody will bat an eye if you bring such a phone
> through security. They won't let you bring a bottle of water on
> board because it might be a bomb, but an electronic device that
> could crash the plane is just fine, as long as you promise to be
> a good boy and not to turn it on.
I didn't say it made sense. But that's the thinking.
>
> Either they're not actually dangerous, or you can't allow them
> on board. You must pick one if you wish to remain within the
> realm of logic.
>
Or perhaps real life isn't binary, and there are more choices than
your feeble mind can grasp.
Which is to say, you're an idiot.
--
Terry Austin
"Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole."
-- David Bilek
Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals.
== 2 of 5 ==
Date: Wed, Oct 21 2009 9:22 am
From: Mike Ash
In article <Xns9CAB5D126F602taustingmail@69.16.186.7>,
Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy <taustinca@gmail.com> wrote:
> Mike Ash <mike@mikeash.com> wrote in
> news:mike-5D57CD.00221221102009@news.eternal-september.org:
>
> > In article <Xns9CAA94105697taustingmail@69.16.186.50>,
> > Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy <taustinca@gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> >> Mike Ash <mike@mikeash.com> wrote in
> >> news:mike-846614.16392720102009@news.eternal-september.org:
> >>
> >> > In article <Xns9CAA6E3DCA77Btaustingmail@69.16.186.50>,
> >> > Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy <taustinca@gmail.com> wrote:
> >> >
> >> >> Digital watches are not known for emitting RF. Pretty much
> >> >> anything with a screen, especially if it also has a computer
> >> >> CPU, can. It isn't that they think it does, so much as it
> >> >> hasn't been tested and proven not to. And even if it were,
> >> >> there's millions of other devices out there that haven't,
> >> >> and the flight crew doesn't have time to look for compliance
> >> >> stickers on each and every device. They would rather annoy
> >> >> you than allow even the remotest avoidable chance (even an
> >> >> unrealistic one) of interfering with the avionics.
> >> >
> >> > And of course nobody is ever troubled by the massive
> >> > contradiction of the idea that a turned-on cell phone could
> >> > somehow take down the aircraft, but enforcement of it is
> >> > purely voluntary.
> >> >
> >> You didn't even read what I wrote, did you?
> >
> > Of course I did.
>
> Then why didn't you respond to it?
Despite how you may treat it, Usenet does not have to follow a pattern
of attack and counter-attack. Sometimes people can just use a post as an
inspiration for a marginally-related followup.
--
Mike Ash
Radio Free Earth
Broadcasting from our climate-controlled studios deep inside the Moon
== 3 of 5 ==
Date: Wed, Oct 21 2009 10:27 am
From: Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy
Mike Ash <mike@mikeash.com> wrote in
news:mike-E69E7C.12222321102009@news.eternal-september.org:
> In article <Xns9CAB5D126F602taustingmail@69.16.186.7>,
> Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy <taustinca@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Mike Ash <mike@mikeash.com> wrote in
>> news:mike-5D57CD.00221221102009@news.eternal-september.org:
>>
>> > In article <Xns9CAA94105697taustingmail@69.16.186.50>,
>> > Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy <taustinca@gmail.com> wrote:
>> >
>> >> Mike Ash <mike@mikeash.com> wrote in
>> >> news:mike-846614.16392720102009@news.eternal-september.org:
>> >>
>> >> > In article <Xns9CAA6E3DCA77Btaustingmail@69.16.186.50>,
>> >> > Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy <taustinca@gmail.com>
>> >> > wrote:
>> >> >
>> >> >> Digital watches are not known for emitting RF. Pretty
>> >> >> much anything with a screen, especially if it also has a
>> >> >> computer CPU, can. It isn't that they think it does, so
>> >> >> much as it hasn't been tested and proven not to. And even
>> >> >> if it were, there's millions of other devices out there
>> >> >> that haven't, and the flight crew doesn't have time to
>> >> >> look for compliance stickers on each and every device.
>> >> >> They would rather annoy you than allow even the remotest
>> >> >> avoidable chance (even an unrealistic one) of interfering
>> >> >> with the avionics.
>> >> >
>> >> > And of course nobody is ever troubled by the massive
>> >> > contradiction of the idea that a turned-on cell phone
>> >> > could somehow take down the aircraft, but enforcement of
>> >> > it is purely voluntary.
>> >> >
>> >> You didn't even read what I wrote, did you?
>> >
>> > Of course I did.
>>
>> Then why didn't you respond to it?
>
> Despite how you may treat it, Usenet does not have to follow a
> pattern of attack and counter-attack. Sometimes people can just
> use a post as an inspiration for a marginally-related followup.
>
What you did, basically, was restate what I said, unchanged. And
you are clearly too stupid to realize it.
--
Terry Austin
"Terry Austin: like the polio vaccine, only with more asshole."
-- David Bilek
Jesus forgives sinners, not criminals.
== 4 of 5 ==
Date: Wed, Oct 21 2009 3:54 pm
From: "W. Citoan"
Kurt Busiek wrote:
> On 2009-10-20 14:37:40 -0700, pv+usenet@pobox.com (PV) said:
>
> But I find plenty to read on the Kindle anyway, and I'm spending less
> and reading more, so the fact that there are still printed books I'm
> buying doesn't change the fact that the Kindle's been a delight.
The major use I've found is reading SF short stories from Gutenberg.
They have been releasing a half-dozen stories or more per week. The
copyrights were not renewed for many old genre magazines.
While Sturgeon's Law applies, I find it interesting to read relatively
unknown stories from the early days of the genre.
> > The single best reason to have a kindle. I use the free chapters as
> > placeholders for anything someone recommends, so I can either read
> > it later or laugh in their face.
>
> I don't laugh in people's faces (well, not for book recommendations),
> but it's great to be able to check out a decent chunk of a book that
> might be interesting. In some cases, I've read the sample and
> decided to get the book from the library, or left the sample sitting
> there on my Kindle as a reminder to buy it once it's out in paperback
> and the Kindle price drops accordingly.
Agreed, the sample chapters are nice. They have encouraged me to try
books that I otherwise wouldn't have bothered with.
- W. Citoan
--
Claiming that your operating system is the best in the world because more
people use it is like saying McDonalds makes the best food in the world.
-- Anonymous
== 5 of 5 ==
Date: Wed, Oct 21 2009 4:41 pm
From: Dave Hansen
On Oct 20, 6:02 pm, Kurt Busiek <k...@busiek.com> wrote:
[...]
>
> I don't laugh in people's faces (well, not for book recommendations),
> but it's great to be able to check out a decent chunk of a book that
> might be interesting. In some cases, I've read the sample and decided
> to get the book from the library, or left the sample sitting there on
> my Kindle as a reminder to buy it once it's out in paperback and the
> Kindle price drops accordingly.
Apropos of nothing but the phrase "decent chunk of a book," I am
reminded of a consultant who was brought in-house to teach a class at
work. He and his partner had written a book[*] about the subject, and
gave each class participant a copy as part of the class. It's not a
thick book (~150 pages), and is decently readable, especially given
the subject matter (Software Process Improvement).
Anyway, he noted with a smile that the publisher had a policy of
posting two sample chapters of each book they sold on the web. His
book has three chapters total: Developing a Plan, Implementing the
Plan, and Checking Progress. There are also some appendeces, but in
essence, over half the book was available free on the web, and the
most important half to boot.
-=Dave
[*]If you're in need of such a thing, it's a pretty decent book.
"Making Process Improvement Work: A Concise Action Guide for Software
Managers and Practitioners" Addison-Wesley, ISBN 0201775778. It looks
like there's only one sample now, but it covers all of Chapter 1 and
about 5 pages of chapter 2.
==============================================================================
TOPIC: Mandelbrot on efficient markets
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books/t/496fa77e4c853268?hl=en
==============================================================================
== 1 of 1 ==
Date: Wed, Oct 21 2009 4:34 pm
From: Marko Amnell
On Oct 7, 9:48 pm, Marko Amnell <marko.amn...@kolumbus.fi> wrote:
> ... I should say that I have not read Mandelbrot's
> book on the financial markets, _The (Mis)behavior
> of Markets_ ...
I'm reading this book now. If you want to read this,
get the new 2008 edition (yellow cover) with the
new preface written in October 2008 on the
financial crisis. You can buy a used paperback
copy online very cheap. I got one from
abebooks.com for $4.50.
Here is a short review which I thought was fair:
In 1963 Mandelbrot published research into the distribution of cotton
prices based on a very long time series which found that, contrary to
the general assumption that these price movements were normally
distributed, they instead followed a pareto-levy distribution. While
on the surface these two distributions don't appear to be terribly
different, (many small movements, and a few large ones), the
implications are significantly different, most notably the pareto-levy
distribution has an infinite variance.
This implies that rather than extreme market moves being so unlikely
that they make little contribution to the overall evolution, they
instead come to have a very significant contribution. In a normally
distributed market, crashes and booms are vanishingly rare, in a
pareto-levy one crashes occur and are a significant component of the
final outcome.
It has taken years for this to be taken seriously, and in the mean
time financial theory has gone on using the assumption of normally
distributed returns to derive such results as the Black-Scholes option
pricing equation, ultimately winning an Nobel Prize in Economics for
the discoverers Scholes and Merton (Black having already died), not to
mention Modern Portfolio theory (also winning Nobels). That modern
finance ignored Mandelbrot's discovery and went onto honor those
working under assumptions shown to be false has clearly annoyed
Mandelbrot immensely and as mentioned previously he spends much of the
book telling us of his prior discoveries and how he was ignored.
That Black-Scholes has significant short comings due to unrealistic
assumptions is very well recognised. In the market there exists what
is known as a volatility smile, options with strikes not near the
current market (ie. out-of, or in-the-money options) are priced with
different volatilities to at-the-money options. The very existence of
such a thing is a contradiction of the basic assumptions of the B-S
model and one of a number of ways the market in practice tries to
compromise between using equations that roughly works in some
circumstances and getting a fair price. For all known flaws of the
Black-Scholes framework, no one has been able to figure out anything
else that uses improved assumptions and enables calculation of real
prices. GARCH models are an attempt to fix this but embed many of the
same assumptions.
While the book shows some nice fractal schemes for generating much
more realistic market models than are generated by a straight Brownian
motion scheme and this is all very interesting. The discussion of how
varying time scales may explain some of the observed behaviour is also
good, the speed that trading occurs may be a better measure of market
time than the clock is.
However in the end we are left at the end with a lot of criticism, a
few good ideas but little to show for it. Attempts to try to tinker
with calculations such as VAR to include estimates of fat tails are
dismissed as being like the Ptolemaic system. I don't disagree with
this analogy, but essentially we are in the situation even worse than
astronomy was after Copernicus. Until Kepler calculated the orbits to
be elliptical, the predictions of the Copernican system were no better
than the Ptolemaic system. Similarly while it is widely recognised
that many of the assumptions of modern finance are wrong it does give
us a framework to make calculations and will continue to be used until
something better comes along.
In the end he calls for research to be done into better developing a
theory to understand market behaviour, which is a good thing. In the
interim though work in the old paradigm will continue with some
recognition that there are flaws which will be dealt with in an ad hoc
way. Continued railing against Efficient Markets, the normal
distribution and the independence of returns this will not change this
without some solid results.
[I thought this comment was interesting]
G Sloane Says:
10 October, 2006 at 12:47 pm
I first read this book during the winter of 2005. Most of my career
has been in the arena of financial analysis, and in that field, I am
not really concerned so much with the purity of mathematical theory as
I am about getting results. But as soon as I picked up the book, I
sensed that it was saying something extremely profound that cut to the
core of what I did for a living. In modern business schools, we are
indoctrinated with concepts of the random walk and the normal
distribution – so much so – that we take them for gospel. But when we
transition from the world of academia to the world of enterprise, we
are consistently confronted by the reality that the models don't work
as well as they should. We usually chalk this up to being a problem of
implementation rather something fundamentally wrong with our most
basic assumptions. But when I read "Misbehavior of Markets", I knew
that Mandelbrot was articulating a great truth. Suddenly I could see
dozens of situations from my past, where assumptions about probability
had fallen short of reality – not only in the financial markets, but
also in the metrics of corporate planning. The critic above it correct
in saying that Mandelbrot raises questions without providing the
answers. This book is not a cookbook. It will remain for others to
come up with recipes. But just knowing the short-comings of
traditional models is an important first step. My financial consulting
firm has already begun that process in our own work. This book was the
catalyst for that process.
http://steveedney.wordpress.com/2006/09/26/misbehavior-of-markets-mandelbrot/
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TOPIC: The book that contains all books
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.books/t/1950ed5393c908a7?hl=en
==============================================================================
== 1 of 1 ==
Date: Wed, Oct 21 2009 9:07 pm
From: wdstarr@panix.com (William December Starr)
In article <nebusj.1256052866@vcmr-86.server.rpi.edu>,
nebusj-@-rpi-.edu (Joseph Nebus) said:
> I was thinking of the Stanislaw Lem robot story in which all
> possible information, books included, were extracted from the
> molecular movement within a cup of tea, myself.
Doesn't that just produce the same "having all possible information
is like having no information" problem as Borges' Library of Babel?
-- wds
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